Rates will support moderate destabilization. In place as far north as central KS, with low 60s F dewpointsР”В®xtending into eastern NE. Ahead of the dryline, mid 60s F dewpoints will be A surface dryline will extend southward from central KS intoР”В¬entral TX by 00z. Nevertheless, a favorable low-level pattern will emerge across theР”В¬entral/southern Plains as a lee cyclone deepens and shifts eastР”Р„cross western KS, with another low developing along the NE/SDР”В«order. Where strong large-scale ascent is focus, as well as where stronger This is resulting in some uncertainty as this will impact Though forecast guidance varies on when/where the closed lowР”В®volves. Upper low is forecast to develop over the northern/central Plains, Wave as it slides eastward into the Plains. The strongest mid/upper flowР”Р„ssociated with trough is expected to be on the back side of the Day 4/Friday - Southern/Central Plains Vicinity.Р”Р„n upper trough will extend from the northern Intermountain region POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity. PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point. It can't just dump out West forever (i guess it could) but hopefully it eventually makes it to the East.(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)

But if blocking persist, the cold dump is going to come. This would likely make us sick watching as we got a wiff the size of Kansas in Feb of this year during the Arctic outbreak. So i can see a scenario where us in the Southeast are on the outside looking in once again as places like Texas, Arkansas, Western TN, maybe Northern LA into Northern MS are getting into the cold air. It will get colder West of us (South Central US) before it reaches us. Take this time to take in knowledge & learn what makes all this come together, i know i have over the years.Р”В®ven though this model is ridiculous, one thing is likely certain & seems right. It's going to snow again, it's just a matter of when. Take it from someone who lives in the Armpit of Hell (Columbia, SC) and hasn't seen appreciatable Winter precip since Feb 2014. The first step with a decent -EPO & -NAO is there (blocking).Р”Р„ll it takes is one storm around here to make an entire Winter. And i feel like based off what we see on models, we can't get to that second step to save our lives. I think what sucks the most, is that this is a multi step process. It can't just dump out West forever (i guess it could) but hopefully it eventually makes it to the East.

TX/OK get still another major winter storm with DFW getting 9РІР‚Сњ! Tulsa and DFW have continuous snow-cover 1/13-22+! This time much of the SE also gets major wintry precip 1/19/21 starting with ZR NC CAD area with even SAV later getting some SN on the backend (IРІР‚в„ўll believe that when I see it) and being very close! Our golfing poster in AR gets buried!!Р”В¬lick to expand.Even though this model is ridiculous, one thing is likely certain & seems right. That was one very wild up and down CFS! Ok, back to reality. TX/OK get still another major winter storm with DFW getting 9РІР‚Сњ! Tulsa and DFW have continuous snow-cover 1/13-22+! This time much of the SE also gets major wintry precip 1/19-21 starting with ZR NC CAD area with even SAV later getting some SN on the backend (IРІР‚в„ўll believe that when I see it) and being very close! Our golfing poster in AR gets buried!! After this, the freezer really hits first in TX/OK 1/19 and then the SE 1/20-22 (keep in mind the CFS 2Ms are often way too cold though over snowcoverРІР‚В¦come on, 53 BN at DFW lmao). TX/OK never gets warm again but the SER dominates most of the SE 1/11-19. Then the SER returns to dominate again followed by another Arctic plunge into OK/TX 1/13-16, this time along with a major winter storm giving DFW 3-4РІР‚Сњ and 1-2 feet in much of C and W OK: For weenie entertainment: 12Z CFS has mainly torch through 1/4 before it gives and a very strong Arctic plunge 1/5-7, which later results in the SE having modified version 1/7-9 to break the torch.

Snow january 5 2017 tn